So 8th, 9th, 10th sample guaranteed to be high-clay. But the question is: minimum number to ensure at least 3 are high-clay?

February 22, 2026

So 8th, 9th, 10th sample guaranteed to be high-clay. But the question is: minimum number to ensure at least 3 are high-clay?

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Since there are only 5 clay plots, if you pick more than 200 – 5 = 195, you’ve picked all non-clay and some clay, but to *ensure* 3 high-clay, you must assume prior picks exclude all high-clay until forced.
But the minimal number that guarantees 3 high-clay samples is when you pick enough to exceed the maximum number that can avoid high-clay.
Max number of samples you can pick without getting 3 high-clay: pick all 5 non-clay (sandy + loamy) and 2 high-clay → 7 samples.
After 7 non-clay samples, you’ve picked 7, none high-clay. The 8th could be high-clay, but not guaranteed. To ensure 3 are high-clay
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